a Plan B.” That mantra was repeated over and over by
various Latin American political leaders in New York
last week when the United Nations General Assembly
turned that city into a chaotic Tower of Babel.
Latin America is perhaps the region best prepared
to dance to The Donald’s tune. Accustomed to
its unpredictability and the drastic lurches between
one government and another, they are trained in rapid U-turns
or in pulling Plan Bs out of the hat (or even Plan Cs).
The region also knows how to ‘read’ the real
estate tycoon better than anybody, interpreting
many of his tweets and high-octane phrases
as merely headlines to paper over uncomfortable
realities (such as his failures in
Congress or his gaffes about white supremacy).
Nor do they scare easily when seeing
Trump constructing his own faction within the
Republican Party with candidates lacking any
political track record, such as in last Tuesday’s
senatorial primary in Alabama.
If he hems in Cuba even more, if he launches
into armed intervention in Venezuela, if he
rears economic and physical walls with Mexico,
if he dismantles the NAFTA free trade
agreement, if he throws out the Dreamers, if
he adds other Latin American countries to
Venezuela in his travel ban list – these are all
“what ifs” for which Latin American leaders
have their alternatives at the ready.
These alternatives were not, of course, manifested in the protocol
speeches to the United Nations but at meetings with less
microphones and press present and with conversation partners
more attentive to the juicy details. Like this journalist, witness to
the statements both off and on the record by the Latin American
top brass (a dozen or so presidents and ministers). So here is my
takeaway from last week in New York.
The biggest worry in the region is Venezuela and that was
the central issue of the dinner offered by the US president and
attended by Argentine Vice-President Gabriela Michetti, together
with Presidents Juan Carlos Varela (Panama), Michel
Temer (Brazil) and Juan Manuel Santos (Colombia). These
four improvised Latin American horsemen of the Apocalypse
(or the opposite) restated their rejection of any armed intervention
in Venezuela. “You are supposed to be the tough cookies,”
spat out Trump to his Panamanian and Colombian colleagues,
“and you won’t do anything?”
Their reply was loaded with soft power instead of gunpowder:
continue with the economic sanctions, aid the unification
of the opposition and keep pressing to isolate Venezuela internationally.
They also spoke of giving Nicolás Maduro a
deadline to call elections – by the Americas Summit scheduled
for Lima in the second half of March next year.
“If he does not call elections by that time, Maduro will be
indicted and convicted”, Panama’s president assured afterwards.
Nevertheless, at least two of the leaders dining with
Trump came away with the definite impression that he was
capable of moving quickly and decisively to apply force.
“He only has to send in a USAF jet,” said one.
Yet the Panamanian was bolder and proposed factoring the
Cubans into the search for a way out for Venezuela.
“Why not have them at the negotiating-table?” President
Varela said. There are said to be 6,000-8,000 Cubans in Venezuela
pulling the main strings for the régime. If a new president
is elected to succeed Maduro, could he bring together 5,000
officials to set the new government off and running? This was
the doubt transmitted to me when consulting one of the Latin
American top brass.
One collateral problem to the Venezuelan crisis is the influx
of refugees elsewhere. While the stream of Venezuelans crossing
over into Brazil has trebled since last year (over 12,000),
Colombia has already received 400,000 – half of them as the result of a humanitarian gesture by the Santos government
extending the 90-day tourist permit to two years.
As for the leading figures of the Caracas régime, who are
already beginning to pack their bags, President Varela in
person, in his zeal to improve the image of a lax tax haven
currently held by Panama, has said that he himself will be
deciding whether or not to accept each and every one of them.
As for the leading figures of the Caracas régime, who are
already beginning to pack their bags, President Varela in
person, in his zeal to improve the image of a lax tax haven
currently held by Panama, has said that he himself will be
deciding whether or not to accept each and every one of them.
The fourth problem for Latin Americans is
trade. Trump’s “America First” is reshaping
NAFTA, the commercial treaty signed between
the US, Canada and Mexico in 1994. If
it really comes down to the crunch, i.e. dissolution,
Enrique Peña Nieto’s government says
that it has its Plan B ready – press ahead with
Canada, replace imports (for example, buying
more maíze from Brazil and Argentina) and
“continue with the trade agreements we have
with 40 countries. Whatever happens with
NAFTA, it will be the blueprint for what may
come to other markets related with the US,”
said Luis Videgaray, Mexico’s Foreign Minister.
While the Mexicans believe in an intermediate solution redefining
the auto pact (the car industry explains the imbalance
in trade with the US), some Latin American countries are
licking their lips at the thought of taking over the markets being
abandoned by Venezuela. (Sorry, we just can’t get away from
Venezuela!). Namely the PetroCaribe areas in Central America
and the Caribbean, who used to be supplied by Venezuela’s
state-oil company PDVSA. Colombia, Panama and Ecuador
are already bracing themselves to take over that market.
Nevertheless, the most natural Plan B to Trump’s barriers
would be the Pacific Alliance, the successful commercial
agreement created in 2011 by Mexico, Chile, Colombia and
Peru. It was Chilean President Michelle
Bachelet who, at an
Americas Society
event in New
York last week,
declared that
the Trans-Pacific
Partnership (TPP)
being butchered
by Trump
could be re-incarnated
via
the Pacific
Alliance.
“We already
have Australia,
Canada, New
Zealand and
Singapore as
associate states:
perhaps that
might be the vehicle
for a new
TPP,” she said.
“This is a story
in progress,” she
added. As is anything
to do
with Trump.
